DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/17 11:04
Corn, Beans Lower at Midday
Wheat is the leader in mixed midday trade.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 270 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 24 higher. Energies
are mixed with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $8.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 lower in soft trade this morning with some hedge
pressure ahead of the weekend. Harvest should be getting wound back up in the
western belt, with the east delayed for a few more days with corn struggling to
dry down. Ethanol margins remain under pressure from sliding crude prices
pulling on ethanol but overall margins and demand for ethanol remain positive.
Export sales were strong at 1.92 million metric tons for the current crop year,
and an additional 126,000 metric tons announced as sold to unknown today. On
the December chart the $3.45 10-day moving average is support, with the 20-day
at $3.35 below that; resistance is the $3.60 area.
Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with light selling surfacing
ahead of the weekend. Meal is $3 to $4 lower, and oil is 20 to 30 points lower.
Harvest will continue to be slow in the eastern growing areas while the west is
picking back up quickly. The export market has been quiet this week, but China
has been closed for a holiday. The weekly export sales were good at 935,000
metric tons of beans, 195,900 of meal, and 46,400 of oil. On the chart,
soybeans are back above the 10-day moving average at $9.47, and the 20-day
moving average at $9.35 which is support for now. Resistance is the spike high
from this morning at $9.78.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with
support from the weaker dollar and questionable weather in some areas. The more
open weather pattern should allow winter wheat planting to make good progress
late this week, but the extended dryness forecasted could become concerning
over the Southern Plains in a hurry. Australian weather continues to raise
questions with dryness over a good chunk of its wheat belt, but Black Sea area
conditions appear to be improving. Export sales were ok at 454,000 metric tons.
On the December Kansas City chart, wheat has support at the 10-day at $5.88,
with resistance at the $6.08 50-day which we tested this morning.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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