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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/30 11:20

   Wheat Leads Grains Higher at Midday

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 
260 points. The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 66 
points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $0.60. Livestock trade is 
mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $16.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   Wheat Leads Grains Higher at Midday


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with spillover support from 
wheat, but we are holding below our recent highs. Ethanol margins remain firmly 
in the slightly positive to slightly negative range which has kept the grind up 
with blender margins supported by the advent of spring driving season. The 
weekly export inspections were a bit lower at 762,276 metric tons. The USDA 
numbers due out Tuesday morning will be the focus of the market today and 
tomorrow, with position squaring expected to keep the market slow today. The 
average trade guess for the March Planting Intentions report is 88.7 million 
acres with a range of 87-89.75 versus 90.6 last year. The USDA March 1 
Quarterly Stocks average trade estimate is 7.610 billion bushels with a range 
of 7.46-7.8 billion versus 7.008 a year ago. This is typically one of the 
biggest report days of the year, but the larger supplies do not have many 
looking for big market action tomorrow.  May contract chart support is at 
$3.86, the 20-day with resistance at $4. New crop trade continues to chop 
around the new crop insurance average of $4.15.


   Soybean trade is 4 to 9 cents higher at midday with meal $4 to $5 higher and 
oil narrowly mixed. The anticipation of larger soybean acres has limited upside 
in recent days, along with good progress in South America on harvest and crop 
development. Weekly export inspections were good at 655,720 metric tons. The 
lower prices in general could lose major crop acreage overall, which is why 
even confident bears respect possible fundamental news changes on the USDA 
major report dates. So we favor a slight bounce to occur next week going into 
the report. The average trade guess for the USDA March Planting Intentions is 
at 85.9 million acres with a range of 83-88 million versus 83.7 million a year 
ago. Soybean quarterly stocks are expected to be at 1.345 billion with a range 
of 1.273-1.4 billion versus 994 million a year ago. The May 10-day moving 
average at $9.71 is nearby support with the 20-day at $9.79 resistance. 


   Wheat trade is 14 to 21 cents higher at midday with weather concerns winning 
out over the stronger dollar. Full national crop conditions will begin to be 
reported next Monday, but some state by state conditions will be released 
today, with weather becoming more of a concern with warmer drier weather on the 
plains. The weekly wheat export inspections were a bit softer at 322,016 metric 
tons. On the Kansas City May chart we have support at the 20-day moving average 
at $5.46, and resistance at the 10-day of $5.57 which we have accelerated 
through at midday. The average trade guess for the all-wheat planted number is 
at 55.8 million acres with a range of 54.9 to 56.8 versus 56.82 million acres a 
year ago. The March 1 wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.14 billion versus 
1.057 billion a year ago. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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