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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/29 11:16

   Little Trade in Grains at Midday

   Trade is fairly flat across the board at midday, quiet following this active 
week.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower, with the Dow down 165. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 70 points lower. Energies are 
mixed with crude down 0.40. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are higher with gold up $30.

   CORN

   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade fading from early 
strength. Corn is poised to post a strong monthly gain at the conclusion of 
trade today which could trigger additional chart buying and/or short covering. 
South American weather has shown some improvement, but dryness looks to return 
to Brazil in the extended forecast which could continue to stress the second 
corn crop, with more talk of export reductions from Brazil. Cooler and wetter 
weather here will keep planting slow is areas in the near term, but overall 
progress remains ahead of pace and should stay that way with warmer and drier 
weather returning in the extened forecast. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable 
with blender margins improving on unleaded strength this week. The USDA 
announced 100, 640 metric tons of corn sold to Japan. On the July chart support 
is the 200-day at 3.88, with resistacne at the high printed last week at $4.07.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents lower at midday with trade seeing another 
20 cent trading range so far. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 
points lower. Planting progress will remain slow in the US, but it is too early 
to be an issue with pace expected to accelerate next week. Argentina harvest 
should start to gain more momentum soon with flooding starting to recede. The 
chart continues to hold the up trend with support found on Monday at the 10-day 
and highest major moving average. On the July soybean chart the 10-day moving 
average at $10.12 is support with resistance at the $10.46 1/4 high put in 
Thursday. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed trade treading water this morning with limited 
spillover from the row crops and support coming from the sharply lower dollar. 
Trade was unable to hold gains yesterday, and continues to struggle to 
consolidate breakouts. The bull argument continues to need improved export 
demand with world supplies still ample overall with further weakness in the 
dollar needed to encourage buyers. The weekly export sales were strong at 
351,900 metric tons of old crop, and 454,700 of new crop, but that will need to 
happen consistently before the market gets excited about it. Disease concerns 
will continue in some of the wetter areas. The cold weather in continental 
Europe will slow growth there, but Russia has seen good weather so far, along 
with improvement in Ukrainian conditions. The July Kansas City chart had 
resistance at the $4.76 3/4 20-day which we have are hanging around this 
morning and support at the recent lows at $4.53.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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