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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/17 11:04

   Corn, Beans Lower at Midday

   Wheat is the leader in mixed midday trade.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 270 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 24 higher. Energies 
are mixed with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $8.


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 lower in soft trade this morning with some hedge 
pressure ahead of the weekend. Harvest should be getting wound back up in the 
western belt, with the east delayed for a few more days with corn struggling to 
dry down. Ethanol margins remain under pressure from sliding crude prices 
pulling on ethanol but overall margins and demand for ethanol remain positive. 
Export sales were strong at 1.92 million metric tons for the current crop year, 
and an additional 126,000 metric tons announced as sold to unknown today. On 
the December chart the $3.45 10-day moving average is support, with the 20-day 
at $3.35 below that; resistance is the $3.60 area. 


   Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with light selling surfacing 
ahead of the weekend. Meal is $3 to $4 lower, and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. 
Harvest will continue to be slow in the eastern growing areas while the west is 
picking back up quickly. The export market has been quiet this week, but China 
has been closed for a holiday. The weekly export sales were good at 935,000 
metric tons of beans, 195,900 of meal, and 46,400 of oil. On the chart, 
soybeans are back above the 10-day moving average at $9.47, and the 20-day 
moving average at $9.35 which is support for now. Resistance is the spike high 
from this morning at $9.78.


   Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with 
support from the weaker dollar and questionable weather in some areas. The more 
open weather pattern should allow winter wheat planting to make good progress 
late this week, but the extended dryness forecasted could become concerning 
over the Southern Plains in a hurry. Australian weather continues to raise 
questions with dryness over a good chunk of its wheat belt, but Black Sea area 
conditions appear to be improving. Export sales were ok at 454,000 metric tons. 
On the December Kansas City chart, wheat has support at the 10-day at $5.88, 
with resistance at the $6.08 50-day which we tested this morning. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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