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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/22 11:42

   Grains Lightly Mixed at Midday

   Wheat is the leader at midday up a nickel, with row crops struggling in slow 
trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 180 lower. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 3 points lower. Energies 
are weaker with crude down $1.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold down $2. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 2 cents lower in quiet trade at midday as we return from the 
holiday on Monday with rangebound trade looking to continue to start the week. 
The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of 
excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement down the 
road. Ethanol margins remain poor with futures still near the lows with 
significant blender margin improvement likely waiting until spring with futures 
fading again this morning. Winter weather will likely slow corn movement again, 
keeping basis flat to firmer. The government partial shutdown is expected to 
continue to limit news. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.08 million 
metric tons. On the March chart, support is the multiple moving averages at the 
$3.77-3.79 area, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.83 7/8. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is mixed with light two sided trade to open the week. Meal is 
flat to $1 lower, and oil was 5 to 15 points lower. South America weather items 
remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and 
pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and 
excessive rain potential in Argentina. Basis has been pretty flat with the 
weather likely to add support. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.1 
million metric tons. Forecasts are being monitored closely. Support is the 
$9.07 50-day moving average, and resistance the 200-day at 9.25.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher at with more talk of Russian restrictions 
adding support to the market with trade looking to challenge the next levels of 
resistance, with trade backing a little off the upper end of the range. The 
dollar has bounced last week into this week, but remains in the lower part our 
two-month range. Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. 
North American winter wheat should be OK moisture wise with cold snaps the 
biggest threat for now. Russia domestic prices will be watched closely with 
firmer values again there. On the March Kansas City chart, support is the 
50-day at $5.04 with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $5.11.

    David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

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