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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/31 11:35

   Corn Down, Beans Higher at Midday

   Grain trade is mixed at midday with the market appearing to be waiting on 
the moisture event Sunday into next week.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 190. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 3 higher.  Energies are mostly 
lower with crude oil down $0.88. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle 
sharply lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $9. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday staying in the trading range of 
this past week and just off the fresh contract lows. Basis remains sideways 
with ethanol margins seeing light pressure although sot margins remain very 
good historically. The weather forecast remains mostly cool and mostly dry in 
the near term with a moisture pick-up expected next week. December contract 
support remains at the recent $3.64 low, with the 10-day moving average at 
$3.72 first resistance. If the weather would give us a rally expect greater 
sell stops to be sitting above the gap in the $3.78-3.80 area. The weekly 
export sales were disappointing on old crop at 173,800 metric tons, but good on 
new crop at 1.09 million metric tons.


   Soybean trade is 2 to 6 cents higher at midday, with the August trade up a 
dime as it goes towards delivery. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil is 10 to 20 
points higher. Weather is expected to remain cool and dryer than normal this 
week, with little rain showing for most of the belt in the next five days. 
Beyond that, moisture expectations remain mixed, with heat up ticking in the 
western part of the belt this weekend. Once rains come, it will likely renew 
the selling pressure on the market, but support should be evident in the 
meantime. The weekly export sales were good with 187,400 metric tons of old 
crop, 1.27 million metric tons of new crop, 43,700 of old crop meal, 707,400 of 
new crop meal, 12,800 of old crop bean oil, and 20,000 of new crop bean oil. On 
the November chart, we closed below all major moving averages; the contract low 
of $10.55 is support. Chart resistance is at the $10.84 10-day then the $10.95 
20-day moving average. 


   Wheat trade is mixed at midday, with the Kansas City contract showing the 
most strength. Spread trade has firmed today indicating commercial buying. 
World wheat weather remains mostly a non-issue for now with a few trouble spots 
still lingering. Wheat needs a demand story to take it out of its oversold 
chart conditions unless the row crops find a reason to rally and give wheat 
some spillover support. The weekly export sales were good at 801,000 metric 
tons. On the September Chicago chart resistance is at the $5.32 10-day, then 
the $5.41 20-day. Support is at the fresh low printed yesterday at $5.18 1/2. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.     

   David Fiala can be reached at

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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