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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/07 11:19

   All Grains Down at Midday

   Grain trade is lower at midday with longs taking off some positions ahead of 
the USDA report Friday morning.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are mixed with the Dow futures up 15 points. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 14 points lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up 1.00. Livestock trade has cattle lower, and 
hogs higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $5.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with long profit taking 
occurring. Ethanol futures are lower at midday despite higher crude and 
unleaded trade but the fact ethanol futures are a premium to unleaded warrants 
lower discretionary blending. The monthly WASDE report coming up tomorrow 
morning will be watched closely and should trigger some position squaring ahead 
of it. The average trade guess is for a 13.505 billion bushel crop versus 
13.585 billion on the September report, the range of estimates is 13.28 to 
13.799. The carryover is expected to slip to the 1.535 billion bushel area 
versus the 1.592 September number. The weekly export sales were mediocre at 
519,700 metric tons. On the nearby December chart nearby support is the 100-day 
moving average at $3.88, then the 20-day at $3.87. Resistance is at the 200-day 
at $3.98.


   Soybean trade is 7 to 11 cents lower with trade giving back the light 
midweek gains. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower, and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. 
Harvest progress should continue rapidly with warm temperatures and fairly open 
weather. The average trade guess is looking for a 47.2 yield versus 47.1 on the 
report last month, but lower acreage so the production estimate is at 3.91 
billion versus 3.935 on the September report. The carryover estimate is at 415 
million bushels versus 450 on the September report. The weekly export sales 
were good at 1.28 million metric tons for this year, 995,600 for next year, 
275,500 of meal, and 15,000 of oil. USDA announced 20,000 metric tons of soy 
oil sold to unknown as well. On the November chart the contract low at $8.53 
1/4 is long-term support with the 20-day moving average at $8.80 nearby 
support, which we have held at midday. Upside resistance is at the $8.99 50-day 
then the $9.02 high seen last week. 


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with 
the weaker row crop trade adding pressure. International weather is a growing 
question mark with Australia mostly in focus with heat in the near term, but 
ample world supplies will limit concerns. Focus on corn and soybean harvest 
activity and the low wheat prices may limit winter wheat plantings this month, 
and wheat likely needs to buy additional acres. The WASDE report is expected to 
show some reduction in wheat carryout after the stocks and production reports 
were below expectations. The average carryover estimate is at 820 million 
bushels versus 875 million on the September report. The weekly export sales 
were soft at 288,200 metric tons. On the Kansas City December chart support is 
at the 10-day at $5.03 and 20-day moving average at $4.96 with resistance at 
the $5.20 7-week high reached this week then the $5.33 100-day moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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